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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the comprehensive defeats have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, with Darge among substitutes. Onyeama-Christie's omission is notable.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, their attack, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to hit them with 23 unanswered points.

The clear message is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.