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During the 2016 campaign for the US presidency, Viktor Orbán emerged as the exclusive EU chief to support Donald Trump. This backing came as no shock, in light of the Hungarian leader's embrace of controversial theories like great replacement ideology and the restrictions against press independence. Commentators observe that Hungary's premier more or less wrote the playbook for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding Orbán as a precursor to Trump.

Campaign Assistance In advance of Hungary's Polls

Recently, with pivotal polls in Hungary merely six months away, the American leader returned some political favors. With Orbán seeks a fifth consecutive term governing a country he calls an non-liberal system, his ruling party currently trails in the polls. A visit to the US capital yielded more than Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought far more significant electoral advantages.

Energy Exemptions and Economic Protections

Even though previously admonishing European states on the need to halt all fuel purchases from Russia, and threatening sanctions against countries persisting to purchase Russian crude, Donald Trump consented to provide a special exemption for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian oil. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also pledged to offer a “financial shield” to Budapest if it faces any future difficulties, particularly since the European Union continues to withhold large sums from the EU to the nation on grounds of rule-of-law breaches.

The specifics of this agreement are vague. Yet Mr Trump recently demonstrated his willingness to assist ideological allies when the US provided a $20 billion in emergency funds to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. Even though Orbán failed to obtain a presidential tour to the Hungarian capital, the Washington talks still proved a successful endeavor.

EU Concerns and Geopolitical Stakes

Among European leaders, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the international consequences of the upcoming vote, before which the moderate contender, Magyar, holds a comfortable lead in the polls. Heads of state have learned not to look for principled consistency from the US government, and accept the Trump's moves to diminish the EU. However the waiver for Hungary – obtained in exchange for an pledge to purchase American natural gas and nuclear power – openly contradicts EU aspirations to eliminate Russian fossil fuel imports by the target date.

• Starting in 2022, the two biggest EU importers of Russian crude, these two countries, have provided more than ten billion pounds to the Kremlin’s war effort.
• At the same time, Hungary has often employed the blocking vote to stymie progress in Ukraine’s EU accession talks.
• As the EU attempts to forge a unified and effective strategy for backing Ukraine, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, the Hungarian leader's alignment with Moscow at the diplomatic table remains a significant obstacle.

Challenger's Position

Péter Magyar has steered clear of promising a significant change on the war in Ukraine, and focused his campaigning on home affairs, while emphasizing the importance for Hungary to finally behave as a positive member state. Following persistent provocations, the European Union can only wait and hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, such as the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has long been a deeply troubling issue for the bloc. His persistent opposition toward Ukraine threatens to weaken its future security.